Tuesday, July 12, 2011

R1b Arrives in Europe post 1000 BC

Yair Davidi of Brit-am

There are now new studies confirming that R1b entered Europe post 1000BC according to a new post by the Israeli Orthodox Jewish researcher Yair Davidi of the Brit-am organisation in Jerusalem. He writes: "R1b is the major Y(Male transmitted) DNA haplogroup in Western Europe. The paper below considers different mathematical possibilities for the spread of R1b across Europe.These estimates are based on the rate of mutation of R1b as we know it today. The simplest and most straight-forward possibility appears to be that R1b became dominant in Europe after ca. 1000 BCE.Not so long ago such a suggestion would not be countenanced. It would have been considered to negate known history etc. Since however recent DNA archaeological findings seem to indicate a lack of R1b before 1000 BCE (or later) then it is closer to being accepted!!!..."

Davidi then quotes from the new study by Sjodin and Francoise: "Whether or not the spread of agriculture in Europe was accompanied by movements of people is a long-standing question in archeology and anthropology, which has been frequently addressed with the help of population genetic data. Estimates on dates of expansion and geographic origins obtained from genetic data are however sensitive to the calibration of mutation rates and to the mathematical models used to perform inference. For instance, recent data on the Y chromosome haplogroup R1b1b2 (M269) have either suggested a Neolithic origin for European paternal lineages or a more ancient Paleolithic origin depending on the calibration of Y-STR mutation rates. Here we examine the date of expansion and the geographic origin of hgR1b1b2 considering two current estimates of mutation rates in a total of fourteen realistic wave-of-advance models. We report that a range expansion dating to the Paleolithic is unlikely to explain the observed geographical distribution of microsatellite diversity, and that whether the data is informative with respect to the spread of agriculture in Europe depends on the mutation rate assumption in a critical way...Wave-of-advance models with a recent expansion date received higher support than models of Neolithic expansion (Table 2, Figures 2'3). We found it difficult to discriminate among models assuming EMR (Neolithic expansion) and models assuming GMRs (Recent expansion). An interpretation of our results is as support for the use of the correction proposed by Zhivotovsky et al [28], [29] in wave-of-advance models. Historical events consistent with recent expansions from the south of Europe during the Bronze age [19] or the Greek and Roman civilization in Europe and West Asia [35] cannot be excluded, but the impact of such demographic events on European genomes requires confirmation from ancient DNA studies. "

Jean of the 'New Vistas on the Distant Past' Website writes: "Per Sjödin and Olivier François have bravely pointed out the obvious in a new paper.* Whether the spread of R1b1b2 (R-M269) can be connected to the spread of farming depends on which mutation rate is used. If the evolutionary mutation rate is favoured, R1b1b2 could be linked to the Neolithic, but germline mutation rates point to a more recent expansion...This discussion has been common currency on these forums for many moons, but courage is required to go into print with a thought that could outdate almost everything previously published on R1b1b2 in peer-reviewed journals. Not that they come to a firm conclusion as to the date of R1b1b2's gallop across Europe. That is wise. We need more ancient DNA. At present we have a tiny number of samples of Y-DNA from Neolithic sites in Europe, in which haplogroup G2a predominated, and no R1b has turned up..."

Jean also writes: "However debate has swung to and fro over the dating of haplogroups. Geneticists in recent years have often used Zhivotovsky's evolutionary effective dating method for Y-DNA, which adjusts the calculated pedigree (genealogical) mutation rate, since in some populations the latter produced unexpectedly late dates. Unfortunately this ad-hoc adjustment seems generally misapplied, producing dating estimates two or three times too old. For example Marcin Woźniak and colleagues point out that the pedigree mutation rate for R1a1a1g [M458] is more consistent with the archaeological record for the Slavs. A study of the Caucasus region found that genealogical estimates gave a good fit with the linguistic and archaeological dates, while the evolutionary effective rates fell far outside them. Another line of enquiry is directly genealogical. Both surnames and Y-DNA haplogroups are passed down in the male line. A group of men with a surname of the same origin should have a common ancestor at the time of surname development. One study found that they mainly did, using a mutation rate similar to the genealogical rather than the evolutionary..."

This would seem to confirm my own opinions expressed on this blog about the origin and dating of the Y-dna of R1b. The sooner this ridiculous evolutionary manipulation of the data is abandoned the better for true science and true history.

Note: It is also interesting to note that hapologroup Y-dna I which I associate with the Assyrian/Samartian advance into Europe has an accelerated HIV progression rate to AIDS and suppression therapy has limited effectiveness. The Hapologroup I has its origin in Turkey and Iraq the area of ancient Assyria. The Wikipedia article states: "Several haplogroup I-M170 individuals who do not fall in known subclades, with some of the greatest Y-STR diversity, have significantly been found among the populations of Turkey (8/741), Adygea (2/138), and Iraq (1/176),even though as a whole Haplogroup I-M170 occurs at only very low frequencies among modern populations of the Middle East and Caucasus. This is consistent with the belief that the haplogroup first appeared in that region...Y-DNA haplogroup I has been researched in connection with HIV and AIDS progression. The research resulted in the finding that haplogroup I in general, and no specific subclade, had accelerated progression (in Y haplogroup I individuals) from HIV to AIDS. Suppression therapy also had a diminished effect on such individuals"